Is the conjunction fallacy tied to probabilistic confirmation?
نویسنده
چکیده
Crupi, Fitelson, and Tentori (CFT, forthcoming) offer three conditions that constitute an attempted confirmation-theoretic explanation of the conjunction fallacy. I present experimental results to show that CFT’s conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient for the fallacy. There exist cases that do not meet their three conditions in which subjects still tend to commit the fallacy. Also, there exist cases that meet all three of CFT’s conditions in which subjects do not tend to commit the fallacy. In light of these experiments, CFT’s account of the conjunction fallacy cannot be right as it stands.
منابع مشابه
Theoretical note Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt to provide a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proved challenging. Here we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides, Osherson, Bonini, & Viale, 2002) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability ...
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This study aimsto explain theconjunction fallacy (Tversky&Kahneman, 1983) in terms of degree of confirmation (Crupi, Tentori, & Gonzalez,2007) by employing corpus data analysis. To accomplish this, wecalculated indexes of the degrees of confirmation fromthe British National Corpus and fitted them to dataof the previous study (Shafir et al., 1990). The resultsshow that a major index of the degre...
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عنوان ژورنال:
- Synthese
دوره 184 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2012